The Minerals Council South Africa reported a strong rebound in the mining sector in May 2025, with seasonally adjusted production increasing by 3.7% month-on-month. This marked the sector’s strongest performance in recent months, following a flat outcome in April, and suggests a potential recovery in the second quarter after a 4% contraction in the first quarter.
Nickel led the gains with a sharp 55.6% rise in output, driven by increased production at one of the country’s five major mines. Platinum group metals (PGMs) grew by 10.1%, largely due to a rebound from April’s operational disruptions. Other notable increases came from iron ore (6.6%), diamonds (3.9%) and chrome (2.9%).
Five of the nine major mineral segments registered monthly growth, with only copper (-5.9%), coal (-2.6%), gold (-0.2%) and manganese (-0.2%) declining.
The council believes the data suggests a strong possibility that mining output could expand by more than 3% in the second quarter, positioning the sector to make a significant contribution to overall GDP growth.
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On a year-on-year basis, total mining production in May rose marginally by 0.2%, breaking a six-month streak of annual declines. Key contributors to this improvement included nickel (+19.1%), iron ore (+12.5%), diamonds (+7.7%), chrome (+3.7%), and gold (+1.5%). These segments collectively account for nearly 36% of the total mining output.
However, annual production of manganese (-13%), coal (-4.6%) and PGMs (-0.6%) continued to lag. Overall, year-to-date mining production (January to May) was down 4.2% compared to the same period in 2024.
In May, mineral sales experienced an increase of 18.8% compared to the same month last year, significantly aided by a remarkable 338.7% growth in gold sales. This surge was driven by a 40% rise in global gold prices, as investors increasingly viewed gold as a secure asset in the face of ongoing geopolitical tensions and market instability.
Sales also grew in nickel (+70.2%), copper (+10.8%), and chrome (+5.2%), while iron ore (-10.5%), manganese (-9.1%), PGMs (-15.6%), and coal (-4.2%) recorded declines.
South African mineral exports remain largely shielded from the US’s ongoing tariff regime, with the exception of diamonds and iron ore. However, the knock-on effects of higher vehicle prices in the US could dampen PGM demand by reducing the need for autocatalytic converters, posing a downside risk for the sector in the medium term.
