Sibanye-Stillwater expects H1 2025 headline earnings per share to jump 19-fold to 180–200c, driven by higher gold prices and stronger South African gold and PGM performance, while basic earnings show a narrower loss of 120–133c.

This surge is driven by a 36% rise in the average rand gold price and improved performance in the South African gold and platinum group metal (PGM) operations.

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Basic earnings per share are still expected to show a loss of 120–133 cents (6.5–7.2 US cents) for H1 2025, but this represents a 55%–60% improvement on the 259-cent (14 US cents) loss a year earlier.

Profitability gains stem from higher gold prices, better operational results in South African gold and PGM divisions, and reduced losses in US PGM operations following restructuring in 2023 and 2024. Additional support came from Section 45X advanced manufacturing production credits in the US, applicable from 2023 through H1 2025.

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These gains were partly offset by impairment charges related to US PGM operations and the Finland-based Keliber lithium project, caused by a US law change affecting future Section 45X credits and weaker lithium price forecasts. These non-cash charges did not affect HEPS but contributed to the basic loss.

Production was steady overall: South African PGM remained at 804,252 4Eoz within guidance despite heavy rainfall, while gold production fell 13% to 300,191 oz due to operational challenges, expected to improve in H2. Zinc output at the Century retreatment operation rose 22% to 51.3 kt, US PGM mined production met guidance at 141,124 2Eoz, but recycling volumes fell due to lower autocatalyst feed rates amid subdued vehicle sales.

Looking ahead, Sibanye-Stillwater noted that a strong rally in PGM basket prices since May could significantly boost earnings in the second half of 2025 if the trend continues.