Since coming into power, US President Donald Trump has been ruffling feathers in Africa. First, he cut all funding via USAID to the continent and more recently, he expelled South Africa’s ambassador to the country. At the same time, however, he has identified the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) as a key supplier of critical metals to the United States (US). If a deal is brokered between the two countries, what will it mean for the DRC? Also, will it flare up geopolitical tensions in the region? GERARD PETER finds out more from ZACK HARTWANGER of Open Mineral.

Hartwanger is senior commercial development head: Africa of Open Mineral, a commodity trading company that uses AI to assist in the procurement, financing, logistics and distribution of raw and refined metals. The company also provides comprehensive marketing and financial solutions for both large and small mining companies. Hartwanger is a recognised thought leader in the African mining sector and frequently shares his insights across social media and industry platforms.

Trump’s presidential campaign was based on making America great again. Subsequently, he has raised import tariffs for imports from Canada, Mexico and China. He has also threatened higher tariffs for copper imports. He has pulled out of the Paris Agreement and at his inaugural speech, he called for the country to “drill baby drill,” in reference to increasing demand for oil and gas drilling to ensure that the world is powered by fossil fuels for as long as possible. This does not mean that the country is not committed to an eventual transition to renewables and chain security necessitates diversifying sources. In this context, the DRC plays a strategically vital role.”

He further points out that it is important to understand that critical minerals are not only required for a renewable energy transition. “A lot of the time the term ‘critical minerals’ is often centralised around the energy transition and EVs but it does include other aspects that are more strategic. For example, it includes minerals used in the defence industry such as rare earths and uranium used for nuclear power,” he states.

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The US-DRC deal is being structured as a security for minerals partnership. If agreed upon it will help the DRC combat M23 rebels in the resource-rich eastern part of the country. At the same time, the deal will bring other benefits to the country. However, according to Hartwanger incorporating local mineral beneficiation is essential to ensure the DRC derives maximum value from its natural resources.

“From the DRC’s standpoint, there will likely be a strong emphasis on local mineral processing. Conversely, in line with the ‘America First’ policy, the US may advocate for the export of raw materials for processing onshore. This divergence in priorities could become a key point of contention in negotiations.

“However, supporting in-country processing would offer significant benefits to the DRC, including economic stimulation, job creation, in order to do so, it needs the minerals from countries like the DRC to create its supply chain.

Hartwanger explains: “The US is increasingly turning its attention to Africa, recognising the continent as one of the world’s most resourcerich regions. While mineral resources are found globally, Africa offers high-grade deposits and relatively accessible extraction conditions. The DRC, in particular, is responsible for approximately 70% of global cobalt mine production—a mineral critical to the energy transition and found in limited quantities within the US.

Although the US has introduced trade policies to protect its domestic mineral production, ensuring long-term supply and skills development within local communities. It would also reduce reliance on China, which currently dominates mineral processing in the country, and introduce greater competition and strategic leverage for the DRC in the global supply chain.”

Geopolitical implications

China has a strong footprint in the DRC mining sector. Not only has the country invested in mines but it has also built infrastructure such as roads, not only to transport their own minerals but to support the country and economic development as a whole. Given Trump’s trade war tactics, Hartwanger says that America’s presence in the DRC is bound to increase economic tension in the region.

He adds, “The proposed deal could disrupt China’s mineral supply chains— particularly in cobalt and lithium. In response, China is likely to renegotiate existing contracts with its partners in the DRC and pursue long-term agreements to secure its strategic interests. A potential partnership between the US and DRC may also benefit local stakeholders, who could leverage the competition between global powers to negotiate more favourable terms.”

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With China already having a strong presence in the DRC, the question is: Why didn’t the government turn to the Chinese for military assistance? Hartwanger points out that firstly a deal of this kind would have been initiated by the US who are more willing to get involved in international affairs. “China typically maintains a policy of non-interference in the domestic political affairs of its partner countries, focusing primarily on commercial and economic cooperation. The US, on the other hand, has historically demonstrated a greater willingness to engage in strategic and security-related initiatives as part of its broader foreign policy approach.”

So when will such a deal come to fruition? Hartwanger says for the DRC, concluding an agreement in the near term is crucial to help contain the threat of M23 rebel expansion and to support President Félix Tshisekedi’s broader goal of ensuring regional stability. On the US side, such a deal would demonstrate a more strategic approach to international trade and foreign policy under Trump, moving beyond tariffs to securing critical supply chains. While there is a clear sense of urgency on both sides, the complexity of the negotiations would suggest that a deal is realistically expected within the next 6 to 12 months.

“The deal is likely to be structured around a framework that exchanges military support for access to critical minerals. However, its significance extends beyond the immediate parties involved—it has the potential to set a transformative precedent for the DRC and the African continent as a whole. If structured strategically, the deal could serve as a blueprint for fostering sustained investment into mining operations, promoting local beneficiation, and accelerating the development of critical infrastructure across Africa. Done right, it could mark a shift toward more equitable and development-focused resource partnerships on the continent,” he concludes.